The Affect Heuristic

Source: XKCD.com

We've discussed conflicts of interest and bias frequently, particularly in regards to guidelines.  Bob Centor has a nice post today that discusses the affect heuristic and how it might impact clinical guidelines.

The affect heuristic suggests that a good feeling or emotion towards a situation (i.e., positive affect) would result in a person having a lower risk perception and higher benefit perception than supported by an unbiased look at the data. I think this is closely related to confirmation bias, which we have written about frequently, as well.

His recommendation for selection of guideline panels - choose strong methodologists who are non-experts - is one worth pondering.